Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 19.190439 23.160696 27.559243 32.767782 38.739997 45.346457 53.178852
2025-03-30 13.051763 18.108225 24.325307 32.416232 42.542299 54.666587 70.138349
2025-04-06 10.384747 16.037083 23.550930 34.016339 47.932452 65.500802 89.016303
2025-04-13 7.375288 12.688604 20.316526 31.650585 47.589850 68.694503 98.155574
2025-04-20 6.029613 11.358831 19.509256 32.261077 50.992064 76.708131 113.749756
2025-04-27 5.072590 10.395678 19.019586 33.144719 54.692580 85.204709 130.328346
2025-05-04 4.367406 9.685186 18.769543 34.274533 58.729629 94.300619 148.108163
2025-05-11 3.719537 8.926730 18.298694 34.942052 62.034657 102.441814 164.853248
2025-05-18 3.059278 7.988508 17.359097 34.691499 63.818544 108.356301 178.574443
2025-05-25 2.420862 6.933004 16.029288 33.588440 64.080823 111.902602 188.870856
2025-06-01 1.986759 6.208619 15.195114 33.226433 65.466952 117.168580 201.889041
2025-06-08 1.543663 5.333887 13.911293 31.871380 65.017492 119.452717 210.366115
2025-06-15 1.351977 5.080689 13.952446 33.174047 69.544792 130.394586 233.525271
2025-06-22 1.064808 4.474918 13.135508 32.733927 70.996849 136.502302 249.546735
2025-06-29 0.947650 4.327925 13.329649 34.341016 76.273300 149.216022 276.669704
2025-07-06 0.659237 3.499171 11.719729 31.956666 73.869913 148.748925 282.305065
2025-07-13 0.553373 3.254652 11.517898 32.571871 77.217243 158.322614 304.847027
2025-07-20 0.473873 3.073758 11.446779 33.462331 81.150935 169.091403 329.781747
2025-07-27 0.413233 2.941919 11.484464 34.600813 85.645638 181.046047 357.143140
2025-08-03 0.349168 2.758778 11.335715 35.273426 89.222671 191.487149 382.270784
2025-08-10 0.275863 2.479952 10.835030 35.020964 90.844629 198.407677 401.543117
2025-08-17 0.202564 2.136224 10.038248 33.909463 90.538908 201.707353 414.573618
2025-08-24 0.156164 1.907751 9.559163 33.544674 91.795324 207.964887 433.007327